Tariff Pause 2025: What It Means for U.S. Freight and Hauling Services
President Trump’s surprise 90-day reciprocal tariff pause, announced this past spring, has continued to send ripples through the U.S. freight and hauling industries as June 2025 unfolds. While the move initially sparked the strongest market rally since the 2008 financial crisis, the practical effects for shippers, trucking firms, port operators, and the entire logistics ecosystem are far more complex than a simple headline boost. The pause, which temporarily reduces tariffs to a baseline 10% for most trading partners while maintaining a crushing 145% rate on Chinese goods, has created a window of both opportunity and urgency. The reality on the ground is that the freight sector must maneuver through an unusually volatile few months, with July 9, 2025—the day the pause expires—looming as a critical turning point. Now, with global shipping volumes beginning to surge in anticipation of the pause’s end, transportation and supply chain leaders are scrambling to plan for what might be one of the busiest, and most unpredictable, peak shipping seasons in decades.
The Mechanics of the Tariff Pause
At first glance, the 90-day tariff pause looks straightforward. Fifty-seven trading partners, including heavyweights like Japan, Germany, and South Korea, saw their tariffs drop to a flat 10%, giving a temporary break to countless importers, retailers, and manufacturers. Mexico and Canada remain partly shielded through the USMCA, with non-covered goods still subject to 25% tariffs, but critical USMCA-compliant trade continuing with fewer obstacles. However, China stands out in stark contrast: the combination of a 125% reciprocal tariff and a 20% fentanyl-related penalty leaves most Chinese goods under a punishing 145% tariff regime. For companies reliant on Chinese manufacturing, this is practically a blockade, forcing them to rethink sourcing and pivot to other partners, sometimes at enormous expense.
As of June 2025, the effects of this mixed tariff environment have started to play out. Shippers are racing to import as much as possible under the temporarily reduced rates, resulting in a freight surge that is stressing capacity across ports, trucking corridors, and intermodal hubs. Retailers, especially those preparing for holiday and back-to-school sales, are pulling forward inventory orders to beat any renewed tariff hikes after the pause expires. The Port of Long Beach, the Port of Los Angeles, and East Coast terminals have all reported import volumes climbing significantly over May levels. As one port executive put it, this is a moment of “radical uncertainty,” where even modest policy changes can trigger major swings in shipping behavior.
Meanwhile, industry-specific tariffs have not disappeared. Steel and aluminum remain under 50% tariffs, while auto imports continue to face 25% rates outside of North American trade deals. These elevated tariffs on core industrial inputs continue to raise the cost of manufacturing trucks, trailers, and even shipping containers, sending price shocks through the supply chain. For trucking companies, that means higher prices for everything from equipment to repair parts, squeezing margins at a time when operating costs—fuel, insurance, and labor—are already rising. The tariff pause, in other words, may look like a breather, but in practice it has left the sector balancing on a knife edge.
Pressures on Supply Chain Resilience
The scramble to exploit the temporary 10% tariff window has exposed deep vulnerabilities in supply chain design. Many companies have been working for years to diversify away from overreliance on Chinese manufacturing. This “China +1” strategy has moved production into Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, and, closer to home, Mexico. However, the transition is far from complete, and companies with legacy China-based supply chains are struggling under the 145% tariff that makes many imports financially impossible. As a result, shippers are reexamining everything from their sourcing relationships to contract structures, trying to find both short-term relief and long-term resilience.
For freight providers, this means volatility. Demand for ocean shipping has surged, driving up rates even as spot markets show temporary dips year-over-year. Airfreight volumes, fueled by e-commerce’s insatiable appetite and the rush to move high-value goods before the tariff window closes, have expanded rapidly. Trucking capacity is tightening as port drayage carriers report record loads, with congestion creeping back toward levels last seen in the pre-pandemic panic buying wave. Cross-border trade with Mexico and Canada has shown mixed results, with automotive components, aluminum, and certain energy goods still entangled in a high-tariff environment despite broader USMCA protections.
The consequences are visible in day-to-day freight operations. Warehouses in the Inland Empire, Chicago, and Dallas-Fort Worth are reporting elevated inventory levels, partly because importers are frontloading orders to get ahead of July. This is placing stress on warehousing capacity, which is then rolling over into higher short-term storage costs, higher drayage demand, and longer turn times for equipment. All these factors together create a recipe for rising freight rates, even before the industry has a clear picture of what will happen after the pause ends.
Who Ultimately Pays the Price?
One of the biggest misconceptions about tariffs is that foreign suppliers absorb them. In practice, U.S. importers pay tariffs, and these costs cascade through the supply chain. Some shippers negotiate to pass costs upstream to suppliers, but usually these end up reflected in consumer prices sooner or later. The trucking industry is an especially vivid example of this reality. Elevated tariffs on steel, aluminum, and other manufacturing inputs have raised the price of new trucks by as much as $35,000 in some cases, making it difficult for smaller fleets to replace aging equipment. Replacement parts for trailers and trucks have also climbed in price, straining maintenance budgets.
Shippers are trying to cushion the shock in various ways. Some have begun to unbundle tariff costs in their contracts, showing customers exactly what portion of price increases stems from duties. Others are restructuring product designs to use tariff-free components, or highlighting U.S.-made inputs to justify price increases. These strategies may ease negotiations, but they cannot make tariffs go away. In an environment of broadly elevated landed costs, consumers inevitably pay the bill through higher shelf prices.
For many trucking firms, particularly owner-operators and small carriers, this squeeze on costs is a potentially existential threat. The for-hire freight recession, which began well before the tariff pause, is being prolonged by these trade headwinds. ACT Research has suggested that if tariffs snap back in July, the sector could see a short-lived demand surge as shippers scramble, followed by a prolonged slump that extends weak volumes into 2026. Truckload rates may benefit in the near term if a pre-pause surge materializes, but contract pricing for 2026 and beyond is almost certain to reflect an environment of higher input costs and continued tariff uncertainty.
July 9 and Beyond: Scenarios and Strategic Moves
With July 9 as the key expiration date for the tariff pause, transportation leaders are planning for a range of possibilities. One scenario is that the flat 10% tariff becomes the new baseline, extending a somewhat predictable cost structure. Another is that tariffs escalate again, especially if the trade conflict with China worsens. A third scenario involves targeted, industry-specific tariff hikes—potentially hitting everything from automotive goods to critical minerals. Political winds will play a large role, especially as courts continue to debate the legality of Trump’s tariff moves under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. A ruling against the administration could send tariffs back to Congress, opening the door for a reset or, at the very least, a delay that would keep costs lower for longer.
Shippers, brokers, and carriers are already hedging their bets. Some are rushing shipments to beat the July deadline, while others are spreading risk across multiple sourcing regions and inventory strategies. Strategic use of Foreign Trade Zones or bonded warehouses is becoming more common, letting companies defer customs duties until they have more clarity. For many importers, that means breathing room at a time when political and economic signals are murky. These moves are far from simple; they require legal expertise, paperwork, and tight coordination with customs brokers.
Meanwhile, there is a legal wild card still in play. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to take up challenges to Trump’s use of emergency authority on tariffs later this year. If the high court invalidates parts of the current framework, import costs could drop sharply, or at least stabilize while Congress takes up new legislation. That would improve the freight outlook dramatically, but no one in the industry expects clarity anytime soon. As one ACT Research analyst put it, “we are living quarter-to-quarter” until courts or policymakers chart a longer-term path.
Facing a Freight Sector Under Pressure
June 2025 paints a picture of a freight sector under incredible pressure. Ports are experiencing the kind of throughput spikes normally reserved for holiday peak season. Rail intermodal corridors are reporting tight chassis supply and container backlogs, while trucking spot rates have risen as capacity gets absorbed by shippers pulling forward orders. Warehouses are essentially functioning as overflow buffers for importers hedging against a tariff whipsaw. In the drayage market, delays and congestion are building around West Coast and Gulf Coast ports, with driver shortages adding another complication.
The impact is not limited to the hardware side. The broader labor market remains tight, and immigration enforcement is squeezing the availability of drivers, warehouse workers, and port staff. Rising labor costs, combined with tariff-related equipment price hikes, mean freight companies are being pressed from all sides. Small carriers, already working on thin margins, face the greatest risk. Larger fleets have more resources to absorb costs or shift volumes creatively, but even they are wrestling with uncertainty.
In this environment, resilience is everything. Trucking firms that have diversified their maintenance sources, lined up backup parts providers, or restructured equipment financing are better placed to weather the storm. Shippers who invested in digital supply chain visibility tools and built strategic buffer inventories stand to gain market share while others scramble. Technology is becoming essential, allowing real-time tracking of tariff changes, landed costs, and even port congestion. In an industry where margins can be measured in pennies per mile, any efficiency gain is precious.
As July 9 approaches, U.S. freight and hauling services are moving at a frantic pace to prepare. Containers are moving. Trucks are rolling. Warehouses are full. No one wants to be left exposed if tariffs snap back overnight. It is, in many ways, a uniquely American moment: adapting at speed to a shifting trade environment, balancing opportunity with risk, and doing what needs to be done to keep the nation’s goods moving. Whether the tariff pause is extended, replaced, or terminated outright, the next several months will test the industry’s capacity to react, improvise, and survive.
If there is a takeaway for June 2025, it is that the tariff pause has bought time—but not certainty. From the ports to the highways, everyone is bracing for the next chapter. And if there is one thing U.S. freight operators have learned over the past several years, it is that the only constant in global trade is change. As the clock ticks toward July, the sector will need every bit of its legendary adaptability to ride out whatever comes next.
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