Tariff Pause 2025: What It Means for U.S. Freight and Hauling Services

In a stunning move that jolted global trade markets, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, excluding China, setting the stage for the biggest market rally since 2008. While this decision appeared to provide a much-needed breather to the battered freight and hauling sectors, it carries a web of complexities beneath the surface. The pause, which extends until July 9, 2025, does not eliminate tariffs but temporarily reduces them for 57 trading partners to a baseline 10%, while China faces a punishing 145% tariff. This new policy mix means U.S. freight companies, drayage carriers, and the broader transportation ecosystem must quickly adapt to shifting costs, unstable cargo flows, and the uncertainty of what happens once the pause expires. As the industry begins to digest the consequences, the question on everyone’s mind is how to keep goods flowing while protecting margins in this volatile environment.

What the Tariff Pause Actually Covers

The details of President Trump’s tariff pause are layered and strategic. For 57 nations, including core allies like the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, tariffs were temporarily reduced to a uniform 10%. This replaced a patchwork of higher tariffs that had been weighing down global supply chains and led to a measurable slowdown in shipping volumes in the first half of the year. However, several industry-specific tariffs remain untouched, particularly those impacting steel, aluminum, automotive components, and critical materials. These sectors continue to face protectionist measures aimed at reshoring manufacturing capacity to the United States. Canada and Mexico, under the USMCA framework, were granted partial exemptions, but non-covered goods still carry a 25% tariff, complicating cross-border trade and impacting trucking firms that regularly shuttle goods across the borders.

China, however, finds itself under the harshest restrictions yet. Combining a 125% reciprocal tariff with a 20% fentanyl-related penalty, Chinese goods are now subject to a staggering 145% total tariff, effectively closing the door on many categories of imports. For shippers reliant on Chinese manufacturing, this amounts to a de facto blockade that requires an urgent recalibration of sourcing, procurement, and freight planning. In practical terms, companies must now evaluate whether Chinese imports remain economically feasible or whether to pivot aggressively to alternative suppliers. All of these decisions must happen on a compressed timeline, with the pause set to expire in just three months, leaving little room for hesitation.

Navigating Supply Chain and Freight Disruption

With these tariff shifts, shippers and logistics managers must act quickly. The first priority is to map and review every vulnerability in their supply chains. This means looking beyond primary suppliers and understanding how second-tier or even third-tier vendors are connected, particularly those with ties to China or high-tariff categories. Firms with complex multinational structures should revisit their transfer pricing strategies and customs declarations, ensuring compliance while minimizing duty exposure. This review process is critical, as the patchwork of tariffs is likely to evolve even further once the pause ends.

The next logical step is diversifying supply sources. The “China +1” strategy, which was already gaining traction before the 2025 pause, has become the mantra for many manufacturers. Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, and even nearshoring options like Mexico are seeing renewed interest. Domestic sourcing, while often costlier in the short term, can serve as a buffer against geopolitical shocks. The urgency is compounded by a scramble to move inventory while tariffs are temporarily low. Ocean freight rates have dropped 40% year-over-year, incentivizing companies to load up on shipments before rates spike again due to labor strikes or new rounds of tariffs. Similarly, air cargo, which accounts for about 20% of the global e-commerce shipping flow, is seeing a surge as companies rush to beat the tariff clock.

Trucking and cross-border trade have their own pressures. Equipment costs are rising across the board as steel and aluminum tariffs push up the price of trucks, trailers, and spare parts. With Canada and Mexico partially exempt but still facing steep tariffs on non-USMCA goods, cross-border movements remain tangled. For trucking companies, this means being prepared for potential bottlenecks at customs as inspection volumes rise. Drayage carriers serving ports on the West Coast report congestion, with importers accelerating shipments to get ahead of possible post-pause tariffs. The picture is one of a freight market in a frenzy—hauling as much as possible before time runs out.

Who Bears the Costs?

A recurring myth in the public conversation is that foreign suppliers pay the tariffs. In reality, U.S. importers are responsible for these charges, and they inevitably pass them down the supply chain. Sometimes it is the buyer who absorbs these costs, but ultimately the consumer pays the price. Tariffs can drive inflation by raising the “total landed cost” of imported goods, forcing companies to rethink pricing strategies. One approach gaining traction is unbundling tariff charges from base pricing, allowing for a more transparent negotiation with customers. Other firms are redesigning products to incorporate tariff-free components or adjusting their price structures to emphasize U.S.-made content, a marketing angle that resonates with patriotic buyers.

This ripple effect is not limited to finished goods. The trucking industry, for instance, faces higher prices for equipment, fuel, and even insurance because replacement parts and chassis frames are often imported. Those higher costs cascade across every haul, from short drayage moves to long-distance cross-country shipments. Cross-border carriers, especially those operating under USMCA terms, may see marginal relief, but the complexity of partial exemptions leaves room for confusion and errors, with serious financial consequences if tariffs are misapplied. For the average consumer, the end result will likely be higher prices on everything from groceries to electronics, even if those increases are delayed by temporary inventory buffers.

Anticipating the Post-Pause Environment

As July 9, 2025, approaches, all eyes are on what comes next. There are multiple scenarios in play. One possibility is that the flat 10% tariffs will remain as the new baseline, preserving a relatively predictable environment for freight planners. Another scenario sees tariffs rising sharply again, especially on Chinese, Mexican, and Canadian goods if trade negotiations collapse. Finally, the U.S. could selectively target certain industries for steeper tariffs, a move that would roil entire sectors overnight. Smart shippers are preparing for all three possibilities, building flexibility into their supply chains, maintaining strategic inventory reserves, and updating financial models to cope with wild swings in landed costs.

Tools like Foreign Trade Zones and bonded warehouses are being explored by many importers to delay the final customs duty until goods actually reach U.S. consumers. These solutions can provide critical breathing room, especially if tariffs rise in the fourth quarter. However, they require a fair amount of paperwork and investment, which not all firms are ready to tackle. A Supreme Court decision looming over the legality of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act could also change the calculus entirely. If the court rules against President Trump’s use of emergency powers, tariffs might drop to single digits or even return to Congress for new legislation, introducing further uncertainty for an already jittery freight industry.

The impact of these legal wranglings is impossible to ignore. As ACT Research pointed out, tariffs could extend the current for-hire freight recession well into 2026, even if there is a brief spike in volumes during the third quarter. Similarly, major carriers like FedEx have already warned of steep financial hits tied to ongoing trade wars, projecting losses in the hundreds of millions this quarter alone. Freight firms, therefore, cannot afford to be passive. They need to proactively prepare for abrupt shifts and leverage every available tool to stay competitive in a marketplace that may change dramatically with a court decision.

The Freight Sector’s Path Forward

Looking to the second half of 2025, the transportation sector faces an uneasy blend of opportunity and risk. Trucking firms, port operators, and drayage carriers must confront the possibility that the current tariff pause will end with no clear agreement in place, reigniting a chaotic trade environment. With global demand for goods still recovering, even a small shift in tariffs could trigger another wave of front-loading, congesting ports, straining warehouses, and pushing up spot rates across every mode of transportation. Retailers, who have been building inventories ahead of the holiday season, will likely keep pulling forward orders until July, but after that, volumes could plunge if tariffs return to punitive levels.

Equipment prices remain another wild card. With steel and aluminum tariffs locked at 50%, the costs of new trucks, trailers, and components will stay elevated, limiting the ability of smaller carriers to refresh their fleets. That’s a troubling reality for an industry that relies on maintaining safe, efficient vehicles. Meanwhile, ongoing investigations into truck parts and semiconductor imports suggest that new tariff waves could be aimed at critical inputs for truck production, amplifying price shocks even further.

Ultimately, resilience will define winners and losers in this environment. Those freight operators that invest in flexible, transparent supply chains, develop strong relationships with alternative suppliers, and leverage technology to track costs in near-real time will be best positioned to weather the storm. Programs like tariff-readiness checklists, strategic sourcing teams, and legal contingency planning can make the difference between collapse and survival. Even as the industry braces for potentially higher costs and renewed uncertainty, there is a silver lining: a chance to rethink outdated supply models and modernize freight strategies for a future where trade policy shifts are the new normal.

Conclusion

The 90-day tariff pause is not a solution—it is a brief window to adapt, strategize, and prepare for what comes next. Freight and hauling services in the U.S. are standing at a crossroads, with no easy path forward. But with decisive, forward-looking action, the sector can transform these challenges into a more robust, future-ready network, capable of withstanding even the most unpredictable policy swings. The clock is ticking toward July 9, and for U.S. freight, every day counts.

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